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Penarol vs Nacional prediction — Primera División

Primera División · Uruguay
Penarol €30.95m
Full time 0 : 1
Nacional €16.23m
1 2.27
X 3.10
2 3.25

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
91%Chance
Home side avoids defeat 1X Odds @1.35 Very high chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Penarol 78%@2.27
Draw 11%@3.10
Nacional 11%@3.25
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 32%@2.64
Under 3.5 68%@1.24
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 43%@1.95
No 57%@1.85
Bet Builder
1X & Under 4.5 68%@1.50
Half-time 1:0 Model
Exact score 2:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

PenarolModelNacional
45%Ball possession55%
10Shots8
5Shots on goal3
5Corner kicks7
3Yellow cards3
0Fouls made14
PenarolRealNacional
65%Ball possession35%
10Shots3
2Shots on goal2
6Corner kicks3
3Yellow cards3
PenarolReal · ModelNacional
65%45%Ball possession35%55%
1010Shots38
25Shots on goal23
65Corner kicks37
33Yellow cards33

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

PenarolPer gameNacional
1.6Goals for / game0.9
0.5Goals against / game1.2
51%Ball possession57%
10.7Shots per game8.2
5.0Corners per game7.7

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

PenarolRateNacional
60%Wins40%
50%Over 1.570%
40%Over 2.560%
30%BTTS50%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Penarol WDWDW
W 4 Oct Racing M Penarol 0 1 3.55 2.12
D 1 Oct Torque Penarol 1 1 3.20 2.25
W 26 Sept Penarol Boston River 2 1 1.50 6.50
D 24 Sept Danubio Penarol 1 1 2.65 2.92
W 19 Sept Cerro Penarol 1 2 6.40 1.53
W 13 Sept Penarol Albion 3 1 1.42 7.60
W 5 Sept Danubio Penarol 0 4 5.00 1.73
D 3 Sept Atenas Penarol 2 2 5.50 1.67
W 27 Aug Penarol Torque 1 0 2.25 3.50
D 22 Aug Maldonado Penarol 0 0 4.20 2.02
Nacional WWWDD
W 26 Sept Cerro Largo Nacional 0 2 4.75 1.72
W 20 Sept Nacional Defensor Sp. 3 2 1.71 4.65
W 16 Sept Progreso Nacional 0 1 8.50 1.35
D 12 Sept Wanderers Nacional 1 1 4.60 1.80
D 6 Sept Nacional Juventud 2 2 1.83 4.70
W 3 Sept River Plate Nacional 2 3 4.55 1.93
D 27 Aug Nacional Albion 0 0 2.06 3.55
W 23 Aug Nacional Progreso 1 0 1.45 6.60
L 15 Aug Racing M Nacional 2 0 3.75 2.33
L 9 Aug Nacional Boston River 1 2 1.47 6.80

Past meetings

Penarol
2·3·1
Nacional
  • Mar 2026 Nacional 0 - 1 Penarol
  • Feb 2026 Penarol 0 - 0 Nacional
  • Nov 2025 Nacional 1 - 0 Penarol
  • Nov 2025 Penarol 2 - 2 Nacional
  • Aug 2025 Penarol 3 - 0 Nacional
  • Jul 2025 Penarol 0 - 0 Nacional

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Penarol 33 +29 67
2 Maldonado 32 +22 59
3 Torque 32 +17 56
4 Racing M 32 +11 54
5 Nacional 32 +7 51
6 Wanderers 33 0 51
7 Liverpool M. 31 +11 47
8 Central Esp. 32 -10 39
9 Albion 31 0 38
10 Juventud 31 -3 38
11 Defensor Sp. 32 -8 36
12 Cerro Largo 32 -7 34
13 Cerro 32 -22 34
14 Danubio 32 -14 30
15 Boston River 31 -14 29
16 Progreso 32 -19 29
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