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Nacional vs Estrela prediction — Primeira Liga

Primeira Liga · Portugal
Nacional €19.73m
Full time 2 : 3
Estrela €19.85m
1 2.40
X 3.30
2 3.15

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
83%Chance
Home side avoids defeat 1X Odds @1.39 Very high chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Nacional 59%@2.40
Draw 20%@3.30
Estrela 21%@3.15
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 34%@2.52
Under 3.5 66%@1.30
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 59%@1.85
No 41%@2.00
Bet Builder
1X & Under 4.5 66%@1.59
Half-time 1:0 Model
Exact score 2:1 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

NacionalModelEstrela
1.25xG1.12
54%Ball possession46%
13Shots9
5Shots on goal5
5Corner kicks2
2Yellow cards3
1Offside calls1
13Fouls made13
NacionalRealEstrela
0.84xG2.10
51%Ball possession49%
10Shots14
5Shots on goal4
4Corner kicks3
2Yellow cards1
1Offside calls1
12Fouls made9
NacionalReal · ModelEstrela
0.841.25xG2.101.12
51%54%Ball possession49%46%
1013Shots149
55Shots on goal45
45Corner kicks32
22Yellow cards13
11Offside calls11
1213Fouls made913

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

NacionalPer gameEstrela
1.1Goals for / game1.7
1.3Goals against / game1.1
51%Ball possession42%
10.8Shots per game10.2
4.4Corners per game3.2
1.05Expected goals1.12

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

NacionalRateEstrela
20%Wins40%
80%Over 1.580%
30%Over 2.550%
40%BTTS60%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Nacional LLLLW
L 19 Sept Nacional Famalicao 0 4 4.40 2.00
L 12 Sept Nacional Alverca 1 3 2.92 2.60
L 5 Sept Sporting CP Nacional 2 0 1.15 24.00
L 23 Aug Vitória SC Nacional 1 0 1.68 5.70
W 16 Aug Nacional Estoril 2 0 3.00 2.60
D 10 Aug Santa Clara Nacional 2 2 1.98 4.80
L 23 Jul Estrela Nacional 2 0 – –
D 22 Jul Nacional Leganes 0 0 – –
D 19 Jul Tondela Nacional 0 0 – –
D 18 Jul Nacional Leixoes 3 3 – –
Estrela LDWDD
L 20 Sept Estrela Academico Viseu 0 2 2.22 3.55
D 14 Sept Rio Ave Estrela 3 3 2.92 2.55
W 10 Sept Estrela Braga 2 1 6.10 1.62
D 5 Sept Estrela Famalicao 2 2 3.05 2.52
D 15 Aug Alverca Estrela 2 2 2.16 3.75
D 8 Aug Estrela Sporting CP 2 2 10.00 1.36
W 1 Aug Estrela Al-Nassr 4 2 3.15 2.10
D 29 Jul Estrela Portimonense 1 1 – –
D 25 Jul Estrela Os Belenenses 0 0 – –
W 23 Jul Estrela Nacional 2 0 – –

Past meetings

Nacional
1·1·3
Estrela
  • Jul 2026 Estrela 2 - 0 Nacional
  • Apr 2026 Nacional 2 - 0 Estrela
  • Nov 2025 Estrela 1 - 1 Nacional
  • Apr 2025 Nacional 0 - 1 Estrela
  • Nov 2024 Estrela 2 - 0 Nacional

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 FC Porto 8 +15 22
2 Benfica 8 +15 17
3 Sporting CP 8 +9 16
4 Santa Clara 8 +7 16
5 Arouca 8 +3 12
6 Braga 7 +2 12
7 Academico Viseu 8 0 12
8 Estrela 8 0 11
9 GIL Vicente 7 0 9
10 Alverca 8 -2 9
11 Maritimo 8 -4 9
12 Moreirense 8 -6 9
13 Famalicao 8 +2 8
14 Vitória SC 8 -3 6
15 Nacional 8 -8 5
16 Rio Ave 8 -10 5
17 Casa Pia 8 -13 5
18 Estoril 8 -7 3
AI Bet Builder: your accumulator, assembled by the model Bet of the Day