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Nacional vs Defensor Sp. prediction — Primera División

Primera División · Uruguay
Nacional €19.58m
Full time 3 : 2
Defensor Sp. €10.43m
1 1.71
X 3.55
2 4.65

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
78%Chance
Under 3.5 goals U3.5 Odds @1.28 High chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Nacional 58%@1.71
Draw 24%@3.55
Defensor Sp. 18%@4.65
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 22%@4.54
Under 3.5 78%@1.28
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 59%@1.95
No 41%@1.82
Bet Builder
1X & Under 4.5 83%@1.36
Half-time 1:1 Model
Exact score 2:1 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

NacionalModelDefensor Sp.
52%Ball possession48%
10Shots8
5Shots on goal4
7Corner kicks4
2Yellow cards2
2Offside calls0
11Fouls made0
NacionalRealDefensor Sp.
62%Ball possession38%
11Shots3
6Shots on goal3
13Corner kicks2
4Yellow cards2
NacionalReal · ModelDefensor Sp.
62%52%Ball possession38%48%
1110Shots38
65Shots on goal34
137Corner kicks24
42Yellow cards22

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

NacionalPer gameDefensor Sp.
1.2Goals for / game0.8
1.0Goals against / game1.4
57%Ball possession52%
9.1Shots per game9.7
7.7Corners per game5.8

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

NacionalRateDefensor Sp.
50%Wins20%
60%Over 1.570%
40%Over 2.540%
50%BTTS60%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Nacional WWDDW
W 26 Sept Cerro Largo Nacional 0 2 4.75 1.72
W 16 Sept Progreso Nacional 0 1 8.50 1.35
D 12 Sept Wanderers Nacional 1 1 4.60 1.80
D 6 Sept Nacional Juventud 2 2 1.83 4.70
W 3 Sept River Plate Nacional 2 3 4.55 1.93
W 30 Aug Penarol Nacional 0 1 2.27 3.25
D 27 Aug Nacional Albion 0 0 2.06 3.55
W 23 Aug Nacional Progreso 1 0 1.45 6.60
L 15 Aug Racing M Nacional 2 0 3.75 2.33
L 9 Aug Nacional Boston River 1 2 1.47 6.80
Defensor Sp. LLWWD
L 3 Oct Albion Defensor Sp. 3 2 2.81 2.55
L 30 Sept Defensor Sp. Plaza Colonia 0 1 1.75 5.10
W 27 Sept Defensor Sp. Danubio 1 0 2.28 3.10
W 13 Sept Defensor Sp. Maldonado 1 0 2.75 2.57
D 9 Sept Cerro Largo Defensor Sp. 1 1 3.05 2.60
D 6 Sept Central Esp. Defensor Sp. 1 1 3.25 2.30
L 29 Aug Defensor Sp. Torque 1 3 3.20 2.23
D 25 Aug Defensor Sp. Rentistas 0 0 1.67 4.75
D 22 Aug Cerro Largo Defensor Sp. 1 1 2.90 2.55
L 16 Aug Defensor Sp. Liverpool M. 0 4 2.63 2.70

Past meetings

Nacional
1·3·1
Defensor Sp.
  • Mar 2026 Defensor Sp. 2 - 1 Nacional
  • Nov 2025 Defensor Sp. 1 - 1 Nacional
  • May 2025 Nacional 2 - 1 Defensor Sp.
  • Sept 2024 Nacional 1 - 1 Defensor Sp.
  • Mar 2024 Defensor Sp. 3 - 3 Nacional

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Penarol 33 +29 67
2 Maldonado 32 +22 59
3 Torque 32 +17 56
4 Racing M 32 +11 54
5 Nacional 32 +7 51
6 Wanderers 33 0 51
7 Liverpool M. 31 +11 47
8 Central Esp. 32 -10 39
9 Albion 31 0 38
10 Juventud 31 -3 38
11 Defensor Sp. 32 -8 36
12 Cerro Largo 32 -7 34
13 Cerro 32 -22 34
14 Danubio 32 -14 30
15 Boston River 31 -14 29
16 Progreso 32 -19 29
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