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Nacional vs Alverca prediction — Primeira Liga

Primeira Liga · Portugal
Nacional €21.45m
Full time 1 : 3
Alverca €45.30m
1 2.92
X 3.30
2 2.60

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
88%Chance
Home side avoids defeat 1X Odds @1.57 Very high chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Nacional 72%@2.92
Draw 12%@3.30
Alverca 16%@2.60
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 25%@3.90
Under 3.5 75%@1.30
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 43%@1.80
No 57%@2.01
Bet Builder
1X & Under 4.5 75%@1.80
Half-time 1:0 Model
Exact score 1:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

NacionalModelAlverca
1.01xG0.95
53%Ball possession47%
11Shots9
5Shots on goal4
4Corner kicks5
2Yellow cards2
1Offside calls1
12Fouls made13
NacionalRealAlverca
2.24xG1.25
57%Ball possession43%
13Shots10
3Shots on goal7
2Corner kicks0
0Yellow cards3
0Offside calls1
7Fouls made16
NacionalReal · ModelAlverca
2.241.01xG1.250.95
57%53%Ball possession43%47%
1311Shots109
35Shots on goal74
24Corner kicks05
02Yellow cards32
01Offside calls11
712Fouls made1613

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

NacionalPer gameAlverca
1.1Goals for / game1.1
1.6Goals against / game1.2
49%Ball possession43%
10.0Shots per game9.8
3.6Corners per game5.4
0.93Expected goals1.04

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

NacionalRateAlverca
10%Wins40%
80%Over 1.570%
40%Over 2.540%
50%BTTS50%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Nacional LLLLW
L 19 Sept Nacional Famalicao 0 4 4.40 2.00
L 5 Sept Sporting CP Nacional 2 0 1.15 24.00
L 30 Aug Nacional Estrela 2 3 2.40 3.15
L 23 Aug Vitória SC Nacional 1 0 1.68 5.70
W 16 Aug Nacional Estoril 2 0 3.00 2.60
D 10 Aug Santa Clara Nacional 2 2 1.98 4.80
L 23 Jul Estrela Nacional 2 0 – –
D 22 Jul Nacional Leganes 0 0 – –
D 19 Jul Tondela Nacional 0 0 – –
D 18 Jul Nacional Leixoes 3 3 – –
Alverca WLDLD
W 19 Sept Alverca Rio Ave 1 0 1.87 4.70
L 5 Sept Alverca Braga 1 2 5.10 1.82
D 29 Aug Alverca Santa Clara 1 1 2.70 2.95
L 22 Aug Sporting CP Alverca 3 1 1.25 15.50
D 15 Aug Alverca Estrela 2 2 2.16 3.75
L 9 Aug FC Porto Alverca 2 0 1.23 16.50
W 1 Aug Alverca Sporting CP B 1 0 – –
L 25 Jul Mafra Alverca 1 0 – –
W 22 Jul Alverca Estoril 2 0 – –
W 17 Jul Alverca Os Belenenses 2 1 – –

Past meetings

Nacional
1·0·1
Alverca
  • Apr 2026 Nacional 1 - 0 Alverca
  • Dec 2025 Alverca 1 - 0 Nacional

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 FC Porto 8 +15 22
2 Benfica 8 +15 17
3 Sporting CP 8 +9 16
4 Santa Clara 8 +7 16
5 Arouca 8 +3 12
6 Braga 7 +2 12
7 Academico Viseu 8 0 12
8 Estrela 8 0 11
9 GIL Vicente 7 0 9
10 Alverca 8 -2 9
11 Maritimo 8 -4 9
12 Moreirense 8 -6 9
13 Famalicao 8 +2 8
14 Vitória SC 8 -3 6
15 Nacional 8 -8 5
16 Rio Ave 8 -10 5
17 Casa Pia 8 -13 5
18 Estoril 8 -7 3
AI Bet Builder: your accumulator, assembled by the model Bet of the Day