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Southampton vs Stoke prediction — Championship

Championship · England
Southampton €187.85m
Full time 3 : 1
Stoke €75.65m
1 1.61
X 4.25
2 5.30

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
74%Chance
Under 3.5 goals U3.5 Odds @1.47 High chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Southampton 54%@1.61
Draw 26%@4.25
Stoke 20%@5.30
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 26%@4.18
Under 3.5 74%@1.47
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 31%@1.75
No 69%@2.08
Bet Builder
1X & Under 5.5 79%@1.29
Half-time 1:0 Model
Exact score 2:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

SouthamptonModelStoke
1.93xG0.92
54%Ball possession46%
18Shots9
7Shots on goal3
7Corner kicks5
2Yellow cards2
2Offside calls2
9Fouls made12
SouthamptonRealStoke
2.60xG0.68
58%Ball possession42%
18Shots14
5Shots on goal2
4Corner kicks2
3Yellow cards5
2Offside calls2
10Fouls made21
SouthamptonReal · ModelStoke
2.601.93xG0.680.92
58%54%Ball possession42%46%
1818Shots149
57Shots on goal23
47Corner kicks25
32Yellow cards52
22Offside calls22
109Fouls made2112

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

SouthamptonPer gameStoke
1.7Goals for / game0.8
1.0Goals against / game1.5
53%Ball possession49%
15.1Shots per game10.8
5.4Corners per game7.8
1.49Expected goals1.02

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

SouthamptonRateStoke
60%Wins20%
80%Over 1.580%
70%Over 2.530%
70%BTTS50%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Southampton LWWDD
L 19 Sept Wrexham Southampton 2 1 2.90 2.42
W 12 Sept Southampton Bristol City 4 1 1.70 4.70
W 8 Sept Southampton Swansea 3 1 1.88 4.25
D 5 Sept Lincoln Southampton 1 1 4.25 1.82
D 1 Sept Birmingham Southampton 1 1 2.75 2.55
W 29 Aug Southampton Millwall 5 1 2.00 3.65
L 25 Aug Southampton West Ham 1 4 2.12 3.50
L 16 Aug Watford Southampton 2 1 3.70 2.00
W 8 Aug Colchester Southampton 0 2 9.50 1.29
W 1 Aug Preussen M Southampton 1 2 4.65 1.68
Stoke WWDWW
W 19 Sept Stoke Sheffield Utd 2 1 2.35 3.15
W 12 Sept Watford Stoke 1 2 2.35 3.15
D 8 Sept Cardiff Stoke 1 1 2.10 3.40
W 5 Sept Stoke Charlton 4 0 2.05 4.10
W 1 Sept Stoke Norwich 1 0 3.45 2.15
L 29 Aug Wolves Stoke 4 1 1.70 5.40
D 25 Aug Stoke Hull 1 1 2.25 3.20
L 15 Aug Stoke Swansea 1 2 2.40 3.05
W 8 Aug Stoke Oldham 2 0 1.42 6.75
D 1 Aug Stoke Valencia 1 1 2.88 2.55

Past meetings

Southampton
1·0·2
Stoke
  • Jan 2026 Stoke 0 - 2 Southampton
  • Aug 2025 Southampton 1 - 2 Stoke
  • Apr 2024 Southampton 0 - 1 Stoke

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Swansea 10 +7 19
2 Wolves 11 +5 18
3 West Ham 10 +11 17
4 Middlesbrough 10 +4 17
5 Southampton 10 +9 16
6 West Brom 10 +2 16
7 QPR 10 +3 15
8 Stoke 10 +1 15
9 Bristol City 10 -1 15
10 Charlton 10 -3 14
11 Birmingham 10 +1 13
12 Millwall 10 0 13
13 Lincoln 10 -1 13
14 Wrexham 10 -3 12
15 Bolton 10 -4 12
16 Blackburn 10 0 11
17 Norwich 10 -1 11
18 Portsmouth 10 -1 11
19 Sheffield Utd 10 -2 11
20 Watford 10 -3 10
21 Cardiff 10 -2 9
22 Derby 10 -7 7
23 Burnley 11 -8 7
24 Preston 10 -7 6
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