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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — La Liga

La Liga · Spain
Real Madrid €1.46bn
Full time 4 : 1
Rayo Vallecano €86.85m
1 1.18
X 9.50
2 18.00

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Won ✓
89%Chance
Over 2.5 goals O2.5 Odds @1.29 Very high chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Real Madrid 57%@1.18
Draw 28%@9.50
Rayo Vallecano 15%@18.00
Goals lineOver/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 84%@1.29
Under 2.5 16%@6.77
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 43%@1.93
No 57%@1.92
Half-time 2:0 Model
Exact score 3:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

Real MadridModelRayo Vallecano
2.91xG1.06
54%Ball possession46%
21Shots10
12Shots on goal5
7Corner kicks4
2Yellow cards2
2Offside calls2
10Fouls made15
Real MadridRealRayo Vallecano
2.68xG1.12
56%Ball possession44%
24Shots18
11Shots on goal7
11Corner kicks5
0Yellow cards1
1Offside calls0
9Fouls made13
Real MadridReal · ModelRayo Vallecano
2.682.91xG1.121.06
56%54%Ball possession44%46%
2421Shots1810
1112Shots on goal75
117Corner kicks54
02Yellow cards12
12Offside calls02
910Fouls made1315

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

Real MadridPer gameRayo Vallecano
2.4Goals for / game1.4
0.8Goals against / game2.0
55%Ball possession48%
16.6Shots per game11.0
5.7Corners per game5.2
2.23Expected goals1.15

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

Real MadridRateRayo Vallecano
80%Wins30%
80%Over 1.590%
80%Over 2.570%
60%BTTS80%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Real Madrid LWWLW
L 20 Sept Atl. Madrid Real Madrid 2 1 3.60 2.05
W 15 Sept Elche Real Madrid 2 3 14.50 1.23
W 8 Sept Real Madrid(Esp) Inter(Ita) 2 1 1.65 5.20
L 4 Sept Betis Real Madrid 1 0 6.20 1.50
W 30 Aug Real Madrid Malaga 4 0 1.12 26.00
W 26 Aug Real Madrid Real Sociedad 4 1 1.22 15.50
W 22 Aug Espanyol Real Madrid 1 2 8.00 1.45
W 16 Aug Schalke(Ger) Real Madrid(Esp) 0 3 8.10 1.32
W 12 Aug Dep. A Coruna Real Madrid 0 1 7.80 1.35
W 8 Aug Ferencvaros Real Madrid 1 2 7.00 1.42
Rayo Vallecano DWWLD
D 19 Sept Osasuna Rayo Vallecano 1 1 2.75 2.67
W 15 Sept Rayo Vallecano Espanyol 2 1 2.37 3.30
W 5 Sept Rayo Vallecano Racing S 3 2 1.98 3.95
L 31 Aug Barcelona Rayo Vallecano 5 2 1.12 24.00
D 20 Aug Rayo Vallecano Alaves 1 1 2.45 3.40
L 15 Aug Sevilla Rayo Vallecano 2 1 2.70 3.30
L 8 Aug Ipswich Rayo Vallecano 3 0 2.20 3.10
W 1 Aug Charleroi Rayo Vallecano 2 3 3.55 2.10
D 26 Jul Feyenoord Rayo Vallecano 1 1 2.40 2.70
L 17 Jul Heart M Rayo Vallecano 2 1 2.80 3.00

Past meetings

Real Madrid
2·3·0
Rayo Vallecano
  • Feb 2026 Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
  • Nov 2025 Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Real Madrid
  • Mar 2025 Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
  • Dec 2024 Rayo Vallecano 3 - 3 Real Madrid
  • Feb 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Real Madrid

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 +24 22
2 Atl. Madrid 8 +9 17
3 Betis 8 +2 17
4 Real Madrid 8 +10 16
5 Sevilla 8 +1 14
6 Alaves 8 +5 12
7 Dep. A Coruna 9 +2 12
8 Real Sociedad 8 -4 11
9 Villarreal 8 +1 9
10 Athletic C 7 +1 9
11 Getafe 8 -3 9
12 Rayo Vallecano 8 -5 9
13 Osasuna 8 -7 9
14 Celta Vigo 8 +2 8
15 Espanyol 8 0 8
16 Racing S 8 -10 8
17 Levante 8 -4 7
18 Elche 8 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 -9 4
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