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Real Madrid vs Malaga prediction — La Liga

La Liga · Spain
Real Madrid €1.46bn
Full time 4 : 0
Malaga €40.90m
1 1.12
X 11.50
2 26.00

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Won ✓
74%Chance
Over 2.5 goals O2.5 Odds @1.24 High chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Real Madrid 57%@1.12
Draw 30%@11.50
Malaga 13%@26.00
Goals lineOver/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 74%@1.24
Under 2.5 26%@3.53
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 44%@2.15
No 56%@1.78
Half-time 2:0 Model
Exact score 3:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

Real MadridModelMalaga
2.50xG1.07
53%Ball possession47%
20Shots10
12Shots on goal5
6Corner kicks4
2Yellow cards2
2Offside calls2
10Fouls made11
Real MadridRealMalaga
2.36xG0.72
57%Ball possession43%
19Shots14
8Shots on goal1
9Corner kicks6
0Yellow cards2
2Offside calls1
6Fouls made9
Real MadridReal · ModelMalaga
2.362.50xG0.721.07
57%53%Ball possession43%47%
1920Shots1410
812Shots on goal15
96Corner kicks64
02Yellow cards22
22Offside calls12
610Fouls made911

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

Real MadridPer gameMalaga
2.5Goals for / game1.6
0.8Goals against / game1.6
61%Ball possession44%
15.3Shots per game9.3
4.2Corners per game4.3
1.77Expected goals0.85

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

Real MadridRateMalaga
90%Wins20%
80%Over 1.590%
70%Over 2.560%
60%BTTS80%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Real Madrid LWWWL
L 20 Sept Atl. Madrid Real Madrid 2 1 3.60 2.05
W 15 Sept Elche Real Madrid 2 3 14.50 1.23
W 12 Sept Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano 4 1 1.18 18.00
W 8 Sept Real Madrid(Esp) Inter(Ita) 2 1 1.65 5.20
L 4 Sept Betis Real Madrid 1 0 6.20 1.50
W 26 Aug Real Madrid Real Sociedad 4 1 1.22 15.50
W 22 Aug Espanyol Real Madrid 1 2 8.00 1.45
W 16 Aug Schalke(Ger) Real Madrid(Esp) 0 3 8.10 1.32
W 12 Aug Dep. A Coruna Real Madrid 0 1 7.80 1.35
W 8 Aug Ferencvaros Real Madrid 1 2 7.00 1.42
Malaga LLDDD
L 20 Sept Getafe Malaga 1 0 1.94 4.55
L 17 Sept Malaga Villarreal 1 3 3.55 2.12
D 13 Sept Celta Vigo Malaga 1 1 1.76 5.25
D 6 Sept Malaga Levante 0 0 2.45 3.00
D 24 Aug Malaga Dep. A Coruna 1 1 2.62 3.40
L 19 Aug Atl. Madrid Malaga 2 0 1.52 7.50
D 12 Aug Malaga Fulham 2 2 3.75 2.00
L 7 Aug Ceuta Malaga 2 1 3.35 2.30
W 6 Aug Malaga Al Arabi 4 2 1.93 3.20
D 30 Jul Malaga Al Ittihad 2 2 – –

Past meetings

No recent games between them

For this fixture, the model works from current form and the underlying stats instead.

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 +24 22
2 Atl. Madrid 8 +9 17
3 Betis 8 +2 17
4 Real Madrid 8 +10 16
5 Sevilla 8 +1 14
6 Alaves 8 +5 12
7 Dep. A Coruna 9 +2 12
8 Real Sociedad 8 -4 11
9 Villarreal 8 +1 9
10 Athletic C 7 +1 9
11 Getafe 8 -3 9
12 Rayo Vallecano 8 -5 9
13 Osasuna 8 -7 9
14 Celta Vigo 8 +2 8
15 Espanyol 8 0 8
16 Racing S 8 -10 8
17 Levante 8 -4 7
18 Elche 8 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 -9 4
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