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Mexico vs Ecuador prediction — World Cup

World Cup · World
Mexico €198.20m
Full time 2 : 0
Ecuador €187.60m
1 2.27
X 3.00
2 4.25

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Won ✓
91%Chance
Home side avoids defeat 1X Odds @1.28 Very high chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Mexico 75%@2.27
Draw 15%@3.00
Ecuador 10%@4.25
Goals lineOver/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 18%@6.47
Under 2.5 82%@1.42
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 16%@2.40
No 84%@1.63
Bet Builder
1X & Under 3.5 81%@1.60
Half-time 0:0 Model
Exact score 1:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

MexicoModelEcuador
1.31xG1.56
48%Ball possession52%
14Shots13
7Shots on goal6
4Corner kicks4
1Yellow cards2
2Offside calls1
12Fouls made11
MexicoRealEcuador
1.00xG0.72
43%Ball possession57%
15Shots7
3Shots on goal1
3Corner kicks8
0Yellow cards3
0Offside calls1
10Fouls made14
MexicoReal · ModelEcuador
1.001.31xG0.721.56
43%48%Ball possession57%52%
1514Shots713
37Shots on goal16
34Corner kicks84
01Yellow cards32
02Offside calls11
1012Fouls made1411

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

MexicoPer gameEcuador
2.0Goals for / game1.0
0.2Goals against / game0.5
53%Ball possession55%
12.6Shots per game12.9
3.9Corners per game4.8
1.12Expected goals1.44

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

MexicoRateEcuador
80%Wins30%
60%Over 1.560%
30%Over 2.520%
20%BTTS40%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Mexico LDDLW
L 4 Oct USA Mexico 3 0 2.90 2.50
D 30 Sept Mexico Peru 1 1 1.45 10.50
D 27 Sept Mexico Colombia 1 1 2.80 2.70
L 6 Jul Mexico England 2 3 3.20 2.60
W 25 Jun Czechia Mexico 0 3 4.80 1.79
W 19 Jun Mexico South Korea 1 0 2.15 4.10
W 11 Jun Mexico South Africa 2 0 1.50 8.30
W 5 Jun Mexico Serbia 5 1 1.36 10.00
W 31 May Mexico Australia 1 0 1.67 5.50
W 23 May Mexico Ghana 2 0 1.30 11.00
Ecuador DLDDL
D 1 Oct Japan Ecuador 0 0 1.63 5.80
L 24 Sept South Korea Ecuador 3 0 2.37 3.40
D 25 Jun Ecuador Germany 0 0 5.35 1.65
D 21 Jun Ecuador Curacao 0 0 1.19 21.00
L 15 Jun Ivory Coast Ecuador 1 0 3.55 2.55
W 7 Jun Ecuador Guatemala 3 0 1.21 20.00
W 31 May Ecuador Saudi Arabia 2 1 1.52 7.40
D 31 Mar Netherlands Ecuador 1 1 1.59 7.00
D 27 Mar Morocco Ecuador 1 1 2.61 3.25
W 19 Nov Ecuador New Zealand 2 0 1.40 10.50

Past meetings

Mexico
0·2·0
Ecuador
  • Oct 2025 Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador
  • Jul 2024 Mexico 0 - 0 Ecuador
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