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Derby vs Birmingham prediction — Championship

Championship · England
Derby €71.10m
Full time 1 : 2
Birmingham €100.25m
1 3.45
X 3.45
2 2.25

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Won ✓
75%Chance
Under 3.5 goals U3.5 Odds @1.33 High chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Derby 57%@3.45
Draw 17%@3.45
Birmingham 26%@2.25
Goals lineOver/Under 3.5
Over 3.5 25%@3.99
Under 3.5 75%@1.33
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 60%@1.78
No 40%@2.02
Bet Builder
X2 & Under 4.5 55%@1.58
Half-time 0:0 Model
Exact score 1:1 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

DerbyModelBirmingham
0.73xG1.32
53%Ball possession47%
10Shots11
4Shots on goal4
5Corner kicks6
2Yellow cards2
3Offside calls2
14Fouls made13
DerbyRealBirmingham
0.82xG3.02
59%Ball possession41%
18Shots18
4Shots on goal9
11Corner kicks4
1Yellow cards3
4Offside calls1
8Fouls made12
DerbyReal · ModelBirmingham
0.820.73xG3.021.32
59%53%Ball possession41%47%
1810Shots1811
44Shots on goal94
115Corner kicks46
12Yellow cards32
43Offside calls12
814Fouls made1213

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

DerbyPer gameBirmingham
1.0Goals for / game1.4
1.6Goals against / game1.7
51%Ball possession44%
10.3Shots per game10.7
5.4Corners per game5.6
0.74Expected goals1.26

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

DerbyRateBirmingham
20%Wins30%
80%Over 1.580%
60%Over 2.570%
50%BTTS80%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Derby DLLWL
D 19 Sept Burnley Derby 1 1 1.88 4.40
L 9 Sept Derby West Brom 0 1 3.40 2.20
L 5 Sept West Ham Derby 3 0 1.39 8.50
W 1 Sept Portsmouth Derby 0 2 2.10 3.95
L 29 Aug Derby Swansea 0 3 2.40 3.10
D 22 Aug Derby Cardiff 2 2 2.15 3.80
L 15 Aug Charlton Derby 2 1 2.75 2.72
L 8 Aug Derby Lincoln 1 2 2.02 3.40
D 4 Aug Rotherham Derby 1 1 3.90 1.83
L 1 Aug Burton Derby 1 0 3.95 1.86
Birmingham DLDDW
D 19 Sept Birmingham Middlesbrough 2 2 2.85 2.50
L 9 Sept Norwich Birmingham 2 1 1.95 3.90
D 6 Sept Birmingham Wolves 2 2 2.90 2.47
D 1 Sept Birmingham Southampton 1 1 2.75 2.55
W 28 Aug Wrexham Birmingham 1 2 2.27 3.50
L 25 Aug Birmingham Brentford 1 6 4.25 1.90
D 22 Aug Birmingham Bristol City 2 2 1.78 4.90
D 15 Aug Sheffield Utd Birmingham 0 0 2.32 3.25
W 8 Aug Swansea Birmingham 0 1 2.95 2.33
D 31 Jul Birmingham Barcelona 2 2 4.50 1.69

Past meetings

Derby
1·1·0
Birmingham
  • Mar 2026 Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham
  • Dec 2025 Birmingham 1 - 1 Derby

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Swansea 10 +7 19
2 Wolves 11 +5 18
3 West Ham 10 +11 17
4 Middlesbrough 10 +4 17
5 Southampton 10 +9 16
6 West Brom 10 +2 16
7 QPR 10 +3 15
8 Stoke 10 +1 15
9 Bristol City 10 -1 15
10 Charlton 10 -3 14
11 Birmingham 10 +1 13
12 Millwall 10 0 13
13 Lincoln 10 -1 13
14 Wrexham 10 -3 12
15 Bolton 10 -4 12
16 Blackburn 10 0 11
17 Norwich 10 -1 11
18 Portsmouth 10 -1 11
19 Sheffield Utd 10 -2 11
20 Watford 10 -3 10
21 Cardiff 10 -2 9
22 Derby 10 -7 7
23 Burnley 11 -8 7
24 Preston 10 -7 6
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