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Burnley vs Derby prediction — Championship

Championship · England
Burnley €147.80m
Full time 1 : 1
Derby €71.10m
1 1.88
X 3.75
2 4.40

AI picks by market

Each bar is the chance our model gives an outcome, so a longer bar means a likelier result.

Top pick Lost ✗
78%Chance
Burnley win 1 Odds @1.88 High chance
Full-time result1X2 · win %
Burnley 78%@1.88
Draw 12%@3.75
Derby 10%@4.40
Goals lineOver/Under 1.5
Over 1.5 71%@1.27
Under 1.5 29%@3.11
Both teams to scoreBTTS
Yes 31%@1.74
No 69%@2.07
Bet Builder
1X & Under 4.5 66%@1.51
Half-time 1:0 Model
Exact score 2:0 Likeliest

Forecast statistics

What we forecast, set beside what actually happened.

BurnleyModelDerby
1.25xG0.78
51%Ball possession49%
16Shots9
4Shots on goal3
6Corner kicks5
2Yellow cards2
1Offside calls3
11Fouls made13
BurnleyRealDerby
0.49xG1.15
52%Ball possession48%
6Shots14
2Shots on goal6
4Corner kicks5
4Yellow cards2
3Offside calls4
9Fouls made12
BurnleyReal · ModelDerby
0.491.25xG1.150.78
52%51%Ball possession48%49%
616Shots149
24Shots on goal63
46Corner kicks55
42Yellow cards22
31Offside calls43
911Fouls made1213

This season

Both teams' numbers over the whole season.

BurnleyPer gameDerby
0.9Goals for / game0.8
1.8Goals against / game1.7
54%Ball possession52%
15.0Shots per game11.3
6.0Corners per game6.1
1.12Expected goals0.75

Lately

Each team's hit rate on these outcomes.

BurnleyRateDerby
0%Wins10%
80%Over 1.580%
50%Over 2.560%
80%BTTS50%

Latest form

Each team's most recent games.

Burnley LDLDL
L 12 Sept Swansea Burnley 3 1 2.12 3.55
D 8 Sept Wrexham Burnley 1 1 2.12 3.60
L 5 Sept Burnley Bristol City 1 2 2.00 3.95
D 2 Sept Burnley Middlesbrough 1 1 3.20 2.23
L 29 Aug Norwich Burnley 4 1 2.07 3.60
D 26 Aug Bradford Burnley 0 0 3.50 2.23
L 23 Aug West Brom Burnley 3 1 2.63 2.87
D 16 Aug Burnley West Ham 2 2 3.05 2.37
D 8 Aug Burnley Notts County 1 1 1.44 7.70
L 2 Aug Burnley Torino 0 1 2.32 2.95
Derby LLLWL
L 12 Sept Derby Birmingham 1 2 3.45 2.25
L 9 Sept Derby West Brom 0 1 3.40 2.20
L 5 Sept West Ham Derby 3 0 1.39 8.50
W 1 Sept Portsmouth Derby 0 2 2.10 3.95
L 29 Aug Derby Swansea 0 3 2.40 3.10
D 22 Aug Derby Cardiff 2 2 2.15 3.80
L 15 Aug Charlton Derby 2 1 2.75 2.72
L 8 Aug Derby Lincoln 1 2 2.02 3.40
D 4 Aug Rotherham Derby 1 1 3.90 1.83
L 1 Aug Burton Derby 1 0 3.95 1.86

Past meetings

Burnley
1·2·0
Derby
  • Aug 2025 Burnley 2 - 1 Derby
  • Apr 2025 Derby 0 - 0 Burnley
  • Dec 2024 Burnley 0 - 0 Derby

Table

Each team's place in the current table.

# Team P GD Pts
1 Swansea 10 +7 19
2 Wolves 11 +5 18
3 West Ham 10 +11 17
4 Middlesbrough 10 +4 17
5 Southampton 10 +9 16
6 West Brom 10 +2 16
7 QPR 10 +3 15
8 Stoke 10 +1 15
9 Bristol City 10 -1 15
10 Charlton 10 -3 14
11 Birmingham 10 +1 13
12 Millwall 10 0 13
13 Lincoln 10 -1 13
14 Wrexham 10 -3 12
15 Bolton 10 -4 12
16 Blackburn 10 0 11
17 Norwich 10 -1 11
18 Portsmouth 10 -1 11
19 Sheffield Utd 10 -2 11
20 Watford 10 -3 10
21 Cardiff 10 -2 9
22 Derby 10 -7 7
23 Burnley 11 -8 7
24 Preston 10 -7 6
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